China-U.S. Talks Expected to Weaken, Iron Ore Prices Jump Initially and Then Pull Back [SMM Brief Comment]

Today, DCE iron ore futures jumped initially and then pulled back, operating in the doldrums throughout the day. The most-traded contract I2509 eventually closed at 698.5, with a daily decline of 0.85%. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm for selling, while steel mills mainly purchased as needed. The market transaction atmosphere was average. The mainstream transaction prices of PB fines in Shandong were around 720 yuan/mt, dropping slightly by 5-8 yuan/mt compared to yesterday's prices. In Tangshan, the transaction prices of PB fines were around 735 yuan/mt, also dropping slightly by 5-10 yuan/mt compared to yesterday's prices.

In the morning, optimistic expectations for the China-US-UK talks in London once drove iron ore prices to rebound slightly. However, in the afternoon, as the news flow dried up, market sentiment weakened somewhat, and prices came under pressure and pulled back. Recently, the impact of the plum rain season on downstream demand has expanded, increasing inventory pressure on finished steel products and leaving insufficient upward drivers for iron ore. In the short term, close attention should be paid to the guidance of the China-US talks results on market sentiment, while also closely monitoring the upcoming changes in finished steel inventory data.

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